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Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regression
Izbicki, Rafael, Rodrigues, Pedro L. C.
Conditional density estimation (CDE) - recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates - is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular foundation models, such as TabPFN and TabICL, naturally produce predictive distributions, but their effectiveness as general-purpose CDE methods has not been systematically evaluated, unlike their performance for point prediction, which is well studied. We benchmark three tabular foundation model variants against a diverse set of parametric, tree-based, and neural CDE baselines on 39 real-world datasets, across training sizes from 50 to 20,000, using six metrics covering density accuracy, calibration, and computation time. Across all sample sizes, foundation models achieve the best CDE loss, log-likelihood, and CRPS on the large majority of datasets tested. Calibration is competitive at small sample sizes but, for some metrics and datasets, lags behind task-specific neural baselines at larger sample sizes, suggesting that post-hoc recalibration may be a valuable complement. In a photometric redshift case study using SDSS DR18, TabPFN exposed to 50,000 training galaxies outperforms all baselines trained on the full 500,000-galaxy dataset. Taken together, these results establish tabular foundation models as strong off-the-shelf conditional density estimators.
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Major leap towards reanimation after death as mammal's brain preserved
Major leap towards reanimation after death as mammal's brain preserved A pig's brain has been frozen with its cellular activity locked in place and minimal damage. Could our brains one day be preserved in a way that locks in our thoughts, feelings and perceptions? An entire mammalian brain has been successfully preserved using a technique that will now be offered to people who are terminally ill. The intention is to preserve all the neural information thought necessary to one day reconstruct the mind of the person it once belonged to. "They would need to donate their brain and body for scientific research," says Borys Wróbel at Nectome in San Francisco, California, a research company focused on memory preservation.
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Robust Automatic Differentiation of Square-Root Kalman Filters via Gramian Differentials
Square-root Kalman filters propagate state covariances in Cholesky-factor form for numerical stability, and are a natural target for gradient-based parameter learning in state-space models. Their core operation, triangularization of a matrix $M \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$, is computed via a QR decomposition in practice, but naively differentiating through it causes two problems: the semi-orthogonal factor is non-unique when $m > n$, yielding undefined gradients; and the standard Jacobian formula involves inverses, which diverges when $M$ is rank-deficient. Both are resolved by the observation that all filter outputs relevant to learning depend on the input matrix only through the Gramian $MM^\top$, so the composite loss is smooth in $M$ even where the triangularization is not. We derive a closed-form chain-rule directly from the differential of this Gramian identity, prove it exact for the Kalman log-marginal likelihood and filtered moments, and extend it to rank-deficient inputs via a two-component decomposition: a column-space term based on the Moore--Penrose pseudoinverse, and a null-space correction for perturbations outside the column space of $M$.
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Police-style powers handed to Environment Agency in bid to crack down on waste criminals 'blighting our countryside'
Conniving couple whose greedy'pervert' plot'drove innocent disabled man to suicide' given stunningly short sentences Obama Center asks for 100 unpaid volunteers despite hiring the former president's'close friend' as CEO on $740K Harry Styles shares gay kiss with SNL star in wild opening monologue as he addresses'queerbaiting' claims Housing nightmare in America's'best state to buy a home' as banks suddenly seize thousands of properties Insufferable blowhard Stephen Colbert is being taken out like the trash... and thank God! What he's done is so diabolical: MAUREEN CALLAHAN JFK Jr's mortifying night of phone sex... day Sarah Jessica Parker ditched her underwear to seduce him in public... and the girlfriend he REALLY wanted to marry: All the women before Carolyn Mass cancellations as Southwest Airlines pulls out of two of America's biggest airports Truth about'super secretive' Michael B. Jordan's love life... and real reason he is perpetually single: Years of private'heartache' and'loneliness' laid bare Beloved young dad and inspiring female'Air Force superstar' among US heroes killed in Iran mission crash as all six are named Insane moment NYC cab plows into pedestrians... and the miracle that saved them from death Caitlin Clark goes viral for bizarre behavior after Team USA's win over Italy: 'What are you doing? We fled Trump to chase the REAL American dream in the most idyllic European hotspot... here's why we're coming back to a red state I looked like a monster after a car accident burned off my face... but a pioneering face transplant gave me my life back. Furious flower farm owner blasts'feral' customers after they trampled tulips to get perfect photos Harry and Meghan hit back at new book claims she was accused by Camilla of'brainwashing' him - dismissing accusations as'deranged conspiracy' Extramarital sex with witches, cursed bloodlines and possessed politicians: DC's chief exorcist reveals the potent stench of evil among America's elite Iran's deadly drone arsenal is a'wake-up call for America': Expert warns US defenses may be unprepared for swarm attacks Iran's foreign minister admits Islamic Republic is receiving military support from Russia and China Hollywood costume designer names VILE A-Listers including pervert James Bond star, slob female sitcom icon... and details the hilarious evil of Shannen Doherty Police-style powers handed to Environment Agency in bid to crack down on waste criminals'blighting our countryside' Waste criminals are facing a tough crackdown as the government announces new'zero-tolerance' plans to deal with gangs who illegally dump rubbish. Environment officers could soon be given police-like powers to search premises, seize assets and arrest individuals without a warrant. The new approach would allow officers to intervene earlier, bring more criminals to justice and hit the organised gangs behind illegal waste'where it hurts' by disrupting their finances.
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